TEHRAN – In an unprecedented move, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a decision Thursday that has sent shockwaves through the international community. The court's bombshell announcement, delivered on Nov. 22, has sparked widespread discussion and debate about its implications and potential consequences.

But the big question remains: Does this really mean anything to the Palestinians? The answer is yes and no.

In one hand, further intensified pressure on Israel to end its war crimes in Gaza can be anticipated. This could yield short-term gains for Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, including increased humanitarian aid to the Strip and even, from a very skeptical standpoint, a quicker end to the aggression than Israeli authorities have projected. In other words, in an ever-tightening world for the Israeli officials against the background of ICC’s warrant, continuing war on Gaza is a gamble with catastrophic international consequences for the government.

On the other hand, from a more realistic perspective, ICC’s arrest warrant for the two top Israeli figures is merely the beginning of a “Plan B” for Israel. This strategy, employed since the war’s outset alongside the initially stated objectives, aims to enable Israel to withstand an internal collapse.

Political “Hannibal Directive”

Plan B, therefore, is not a twist in the story of Israel’s plot to expand territory and remove adversaries, but the predesigned next stage should the plan to achieve those objectives “fail”: the political life of an individual in exchange for the life of an entire, albeit unlawful, state.

In simple words, Netanyahu’s government was greenlighted to “do whatever it takes” to fulfill the purpose of this war since its outset and was warned that he would end up politically dead if the goals were not met. As the prospect of defeat looms, implementation of the “Hannibal Directive” has been initiated at the political level.

Since the start of the recent war on Gaza, which later expanded to Lebanon, this strategy has been the elephant in the room no one was willing to discuss publicly.

Many prominent political and public figures worldwide have relentlessly tried to reduce this war to include only “certain Israeli individuals” rather than the “Israel Project”, in part manifested in an illegitimate occupational state. They keep accusing Israel’s PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, along with a handful of other political figures – mostly the Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir as well as Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich – of fanning the flames of the war, committing genocide and other atrocities in Gaza and elsewhere, and other acts of political and military violence “that endanger the lives of Israelis” as if they were elected by non-Israelis.

That said, through employing the political Hannibal Directive, the continuation of the “Project Israel” is ensured, by assuring the global public opinion that the individuals responsible for the century’s most horrific crime against humanity have been removed from power.

Therefore, there are two versions of “the day after” – the day after the war with Netanyahu’s government, and the one without it. And the difference lies in the scope of the achievements. So, it is safe to say that ICC’s recent move does not serve the interests of the Palestinians in the long run.

In fact, it makes next to no difference for Palestinians who are in the driver's seat of the Israeli government. Palestinians have endured life under the dominance of all Israeli political factions and classes with little to no practical distinction. The only way to stop the aggression, genocide, and ethnic cleansing in Palestine, is to stop the occupation of the country. Political views may differ from one Israeli party to another, but their weapons are the same.